The home Ibrahim Hadi Sham Dous built for his family from straw, in the western Yemeni village of Al Khouba, was never meant to withstand rising tides.

In March 2023, powerful winds tore through the coastal settlement. By April, the sea had crept inland and flooded what remained.

Ibrahim, his wife, three daughters and five sons were forced to relocate to the city of Hodeidah. Many of his neighbours also left their homes, moving to areas deeper within the village and hoping the tide would recede so they could return.

Their story is far from unique. Across the Middle East and North Africa (Mena), the silent crisis of climate-induced displacement is gathering momentum.

A report from the UAE Independent Climate Change Accelerators (UICCA) in February highlighted that in each year this century, climate disasters in the Middle East and Central Asia have, on average, injured and displaced seven million people, killed more than 2,600, and caused $2 billion worth of damage.

Displaced by natural disasters

Many of those displaced stay within country borders. In 2024, for example, climate-related disasters resulted in 599,000 new internal displacements in the Mena region – most within Yemen and Iraq. According to the World Bank, 19 million people are expected to be displaced by 2050 in North Africa alone, unless preventive measures are taken.

"Climate migration wasn't a topic that anyone in the region was discussing in any depth," Carl Adler, one of the authors of the report, told The National. "It's something that has been happening for the last couple of decades and will be expected to intensify in the coming years."

The invisible refugee

One of the major challenges is classification because there is no internationally recognised definition of a climate refugee. This means many who are displaced by environmental shocks fall through the cracks of legal protection and humanitarian aid systems.

Most climate-displaced people remain within their national borders and are therefore not considered refugees under the UN's 1951 refugee convention, explained Andrew Harper, special advisor on climate action to the UN's High Commissioner for Refugees.

"They move, they try to find safety and sanctuary within their own communities, within their own country."

Regional tinderbox

Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Sudan are considered epicentres of crises, where climate change exacerbates conflict and vice versa.

"Syria is particularly vulnerable," Mr Adler said. "There is increased desertification and water scarcity is an extreme issue that is also exacerbating conflicts."

Mr Harper, meanwhile, pointed out that three quarters of the 120 million people displaced globally by conflict are living in places suffering from extreme or severe climate hazards.

"Climate change is basically driving the vulnerability. It's exacerbating underlying weaknesses and grievances," he said. "We're seeing more extreme weather events, less engagement in supporting adaptation and a contraction in the protection being offered to people forced to move."

Yemen's double burden

Yemen, already fractured by years of conflict and a deepening humanitarian crisis, is emerging as one of the clearest illustrations of climate displacement.

In 2023, more than 100,000 people were affected by flash floods, the International Organisation for Migration said.

Jalal Abdulrahman, a volunteer in relief work, shared a devastating account of 55-year-old Ahmed Mahdi Abdullah from Dhamar, who lost nearly his entire family.

Four sons, two daughters, three daughters-in-law and five grandchildren died in floods, while the surviving family members were forced to flee to the home of relatives in a nearby village.

According to Mr Adler, Yemen's vulnerability is exacerbated by weak infrastructure and this was particularly evident during the 2023 floods, which sets a worrying precedent for the future.

Iman Hadi Al Hamali, from her hometown of Abs, near Yemen's capital Sanaa, told The National she wished the international community knew more of the situation, not least after she designed a solar station to support her community.

"People move from one place to another because of the challenges they face, including climate change and rising temperatures, as well as the closure of border crossings," she said. "Our station has contributed to alleviating the suffering of the beneficiaries of our services by providing electricity for lighting and electrical equipment."

The urban displacement dilemma

"There are a lot of climate refugees in urban areas around the region who face discrimination just by virtue of being outsiders in a new city," Mr Adler said.

Yet this dilemma is exacerbated because the host communities are struggling to cope with the new arrivals, Mr Harper added. "The Middle East is one of the most generous regions in the world in terms of protection, but those communities are under increasing stress to provide support for themselves," he said.

He also highlighted how shelters once considered adequate are now being rendered obsolete by extreme weather.

"In Mozambique, for example, mud huts with tin roofs are collapsing as strong winds now hit from the sides," he said. "It's an illustration of how even our basic assumptions about shelter need to adapt to a harsher climate reality."

Forecasting the threat

Advanced climate modelling predicts higher temperatures, drought and floods across the region, with several urban areas facing thresholds of uninhabitability by 2050 under high-emission scenarios.

Mr Adler refrained from putting a concrete figure on future displacement, citing data limitations, but warned that "as we start to see the sea level rise and even higher temperatures in the region, it will rise massively".

Mr Harper echoed these concerns. "If we don't help the most vulnerable communities, they will collapse and, if they collapse, people will move," he said.

Policy vacuum

Despite the scale of the crisis, co-ordinated policy response remains scarce and the failure to formally define what a climate refugee is "needs to change", Mr Adler said.

"Policymakers need to find opportunities to work together across the region," he added. "They need to look at the basic right that refugees need to be entitled to."

Mr Harper, meanwhile, stressed that "climate action is protection" and called for funds to be directed towards refugee-hosting communities.

"If refugees are not included in national adaptation plans or development strategies, they are, by default, excluded," he said.

From pledges to protection

Discussions around climate change also remain too focused on net-zero targets and loss and damage, with little attention paid to displacement.

"We're not too late to make things better," Mr Adler said. "There needs to be a serious increase in climate adaptation policies – preparing cities for rising sea levels, adapting spaces to be habitable in severe temperatures and decarbonisation."

Mr Harper went further still, warning of a widening gap between rhetoric and reality while highlighting how funds are being cut.

In June, UNHCR announced that it has had to close or downsize offices worldwide and carry out a nearly 50 per cent reduction in senior positions at its Geneva headquarters and regional bureaux. In total, about 3,500 staff positions are to be cut.

At the time of the announcement, Filippo Grandi, the United Nations' High Commissioner for Refugees, said “in light of difficult financial realities, UNHCR is compelled to reduce the overall scale of its operations. We will focus our efforts on activities that have the greatest impact for refugees, supported by streamlined headquarters and regional bureau structures.”

"We're seeing a perfect storm," Mr Harper told The National. "Increased environmental degradation, increased heat, increased pressure on governments – and not enough being done."