Caught in the crossfire

Lebanon's wave of displacement

Over the past decade, millions of people across the Middle East have been forced from their homes by conflict, economic hardship and political upheaval.

Israel's most recent attacks on Lebanon, which it says are aimed at rooting out Hezbollah, have exacerbated the Mediterranean country's long-standing migration issues. More than 1.3 million people — including Lebanese citizens, Syrian refugees and migrant workers — have been forced to abandon their homes due to Israeli bombings that have hit everywhere from southern Lebanon and eastern Bekaa to Beirut.

The situation has left local governments, non-governmental organisations and the Lebanese populace grappling with the immediate challenges of housing, food and health care for the displaced.

“The Lebanese state does not have the capacity or the infrastructural means to deal with internal displacement at such a scale and magnitude,” Tamirace Fakhoury, associate professor of international politics and conflict at Fletcher University, told The National.

With Lebanon still dealing with the aftermath of the 2020 Beirut blast, ongoing financial crisis and fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic, many Lebanese are concerned about the future. “Citizens are extremely tired and disillusioned,” Ms Fakhoury said.

She said refugee-hosting fatigue in Lebanon has set in and anti-refugee rhetoric has become much stronger than a few years ago.

“It is thus likely that the impact of this wave of displacement will be multidimensional, affecting the livelihoods of both citizens and displaced individuals residing in Lebanon from various social, economic and policy angles.”

Risking a return to Syria

About 440,000 people have fled to Syria - through official channels - since the war on Lebanon escalated in September, according to the Syrian Arab Red Crescent.

So dangerous is the situation on the ground that 71 per cent of them are Syrians who had previously escaped war in their own country to seek safety in Lebanon. The remaining 29 per cent are Lebanese.

The crisis highlights the complexities of cross-border displacement in the region as refugees are forced to return to the very places they once escaped, facing an unstable post-war landscape and potential punishment.

It is the ultimate manifestation of their desperation, one refugee said.

“This [return] is because of our lack of choice. We are choosing life, full of risks,” Salam, a Syrian refugee who gave only his first name, told The National.

He said staying in Beirut with his three children meant expecting death at any moment. “Bombs are falling everywhere. Residential apartments are destroyed. There is no safe place," asked the desperate father, who is currently staying in a shelter in rural Damascus.

“Who would have thought we would have to seek safety in Syria?”

Many returnees are scared to settle in regime-held areas for fear of repercussions. A representative for the International Organisation told The National that an estimated 2,000 Syrians have travelled to north-west Syria, particularly from Beirut and surrounding areas, to avoid arrest in government-controlled territories.

Human Rights Watch said Syrians fleeing violence in Lebanon face risks of repression and persecution by the Syrian government on return, including enforced disappearance, torture and death in detention.

The rights group said it had documented four arrests of people returning since September, with other groups, including the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), reporting dozens more.

“Syrians fleeing violence in Lebanon are being compelled to return to Syria, even as Syria remains unfit for safe or dignified returns,” said Adam Coogle, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch.

The journey into Syria is a dangerous one. An Israeli air strike in October on the main border crossing between both countries forced thousands of people to abandon their cars and cross on foot.

Most are sheltering in centres run by UNHCR in Damascus, Homs, Hama, Idlib, Tartous and Latakia governorates.

The UN and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent have established about 25 hosting centres in Damascus and other regions, with the capacity to house 10,000 people. However, these facilities are already stretched, able to provide only basic necessities.

“This influx of displaced people is a crisis within a crisis,” said Angelita Caredda, Middle East and North Africa regional director for the Norwegian Refugee Council.

“Syria is already on its knees after 13 years of conflict. The mass displacement from Lebanon comes at a time when the aid response already cannot keep pace with existing needs."

Iraq's open-door policy

Refugees from Lebanon are also spilling into Iraq, another nation still grappling with post-war instability and sectarian tension.

About 28,350 Lebanese citizens have sought shelter in Iraq since the escalation of hostilities, according to a report from the UNHCR on November 4.

Of those, about 15,355 people entered through Al Qaim border crossing with Syria, where a field hospital was set up, while the remainder arrived on international flights to Baghdad and Najaf.

“Their numbers are increasing day after day,” Ahmed Abdul Rahman, director of the Crisis Control Department at the Iraqi Red Crescent, told The National. “The daily average has increased this week to around 750 individuals, around 600 of them coming through Al Qaim border crossing. Until now, things are under control."

More than 50 per cent of the refugees are children - most of them under 15 years old - followed by the elderly and women, he said.

The influx has prompted Iraq’s Shiite leadership to extend humanitarian aid, offering food and shelter in the cities of Karbala and Najaf. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani directed that Lebanese arrivals be referred to as “guests” rather than “refugees".

Some local officials are advocating temporary employment opportunities for the new arrivals, though this has sparked debate among Iraqis who face their own economic challenges.

Potential implications for Europe

Prolonged violence in Lebanon also risks spurring another migration crisis across Europe, some experts say.

Ms Fiddian-Qasmiyeh said that, in the absence of sustainable and safe living conditions in Lebanon, and without humanitarian corridors, some people may see no other option than to try to leave the country by boat.

But she thinks only a minority will try to seek asylum in Europe because of the risks and high costs.

“Even reaching the port of Tripoli in northern Lebanon is a very dangerous and expensive journey at the moment, let alone the risks of boat journeys in treacherous conditions which so frequently lead to people losing their lives,” Ms Fiddian-Qasmiyeh said.

In recent years, the European Union (EU) has invested in border security and worked with Turkey and Lebanon to prevent migrants from reaching its shores. However, the scale of Lebanon’s displacement crisis is testing these efforts, with analysts predicting that, if the crisis continues, Europe could see an increase in asylum seekers arriving through Mediterranean routes.

“In the broader context of an extremely volatile Middle East, this will heap pressure on to Europe," Barah Mikail, associate professor at IE University in Spain, wrote in academic journal The Conversation. “As the region’s instability deepens, European states can expect an additional number of migrants, and their claims for asylum, to reach them via countries like Greece or Italy, both located on the front lines of migration routes."

But with anti-immigrant rhetoric on the rise across Europe, this potential influx poses a social and political challenge for European states as they face their own economic pressures and cultural divides.

The migration package deal signed between the EU and Lebanon, worth nearly €1 billion, is aimed at enhancing Beirut's ability to manage its borders. However, according to Ms Fakhoury, the deal is “disconnected from addressing the root causes of displacement rather than seeking to stem migration from a transactional perspective".