Super majority cracks: Labour's Muslim backlash

Labour has traditionally counted on a strong performance among 3.9 million Muslims but Gaza is fracturing that core supporter base.

One in six British Muslims lives in a marginal seat at the July 4 general election, analysis by The National reveals.

Their verdict could swing the outcome in a string of competitive seats after an unprecedented tug-of-war for the Muslim vote.

If attempts to mobilise a pro-Palestinian vote succeed, Labour’s Keir Starmer could enter Downing Street with both a super-majority and a symbolic bloody nose. With a Labour victory seen as a foregone conclusion, a historic desertion by Muslim voters would be one of the stories of election night. Last time out, they went strongly for Labour, which is defending 46 of the 50 seats with the biggest Muslim population.

Labour took 59 per cent of votes in those seats to 27 per cent for the Conservatives – and would normally expect to climb even higher given its strong national standing.

2019 election results with constituencies grouped by Muslim population

But Muslim loyalty to Labour has been sorely tested by party splits on Gaza and Mr Starmer’s hesitation to support a ceasefire. After George Galloway’s Workers Party rode anger over Gaza to victory in a by-election in Rochdale, others want to repeat the trick on July 4. Independent candidates such as Labour exiles Jeremy Corbyn and Faiza Shaheen are among those challenging Mr Starmer with a pro-Palestinian voice.

After boundary changes in most of Britain’s 650 seats, there are two Muslim-majority constituencies: Bradford West, and Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley.

In 28 seats more than a quarter of constituents are Muslim, all held by Labour. There are 110 seats with a Muslim population of 10 per cent or more.

Like any other group, Muslims do not vote as a bloc, and faith or ethnic background alone does not determine their politics.

Census data shows Muslims in Britain are disproportionately likely to be students, live in big cities and rent social housing – all factors that might help explain Labour sympathies.
But candidates have spied an opportunity to mobilise British Muslims and the data shows a cluster of seats where their votes could be crucial.

Most marginal seats with a Muslim population of 15% or more

There are 24 marginal seats – where one party is sitting on a majority of less than 10 per cent – with a Muslim population of 10 per cent or more.

Across the UK, about 664,000 Muslims live in a marginal constituency, roughly one in six.

Local elections in May saw signs of Labour bleeding votes in Muslim areas. One organisation called The Muslim Vote is endorsing dozens of candidates on July 4 based on their support for a ceasefire in Gaza and their backing from the “local community”.

The Henry Jackson Society, a right-wing think tank, examined mobilisation efforts in a recent report. Director Alan Mendoza conceded it was “highly unlikely all religious minorities in a constituency will vote in a uniform manner for a particular political party”.

In ultra-marginal Burnley, the Conservatives are sitting on a majority of just 0.3 per cent. But the leader of Burnley Council quit Labour over Gaza last year and the views of the town’s 20,000 Muslims are being closely watched.

Another Tory marginal is Chingford and Woodford Green, where former Conservative Party leader Iain Duncan Smith, is aiming to cling on to a 2.9 per cent majority after Labour dropped candidate Ms Shaheen in an anti-Semitism row. She is running as an independent.

Walsall and Bloxwich holds the title of Conservative seat with the biggest Muslim constituent base (21.9 per cent), but Labour’s Valerie Vaz is aiming to overturn a majority of 4.8 per cent.

Constituencies held by Labour have an average Muslim population of 11.9%. Those held by Conservatives have 2.6%.

Labour-held marginals with a large Muslim population include Halifax, Bolton South, and Oldham East and Saddleworth. Mr Galloway’s Workers Party is running a candidate in all three.

To some extent, Mr Starmer is insulated by the fact many Muslims live in areas with massive Labour majorities, meaning he could survive a moderate protest vote without losing seats.

All 28 seats where a quarter or more of the population is Muslim are held by Labour.

None is marginal, with the narrowest Labour majority of 12.4 per cent in Leicester East perhaps partly attributable to a scandal involving former MP Keith Vaz.

Labour dominance in constituencies with large Muslim populations

Across the 50 most Muslim seats, Labour won in 2019 with a vote share of 59.4 per cent adjusted for the new boundaries, despite being thrashed nationally. The Tories won 27.3 per cent.

At the same time, Labour’s past success also means it can less afford to ignore Muslim constituents.

The average Labour seat has a Muslim population of 11.9 per cent. It is just 2.6 per cent in Tory areas and 3.8 per cent in Liberal Democrat-held seats.

And some campaigners are using the expectation that Labour will win handily across the country to their advantage, arguing a protest vote is harmless.