Trail of devastation

Devastating fires engulfed large areas of Europe, North Africa and North America this summer. In Canada alone, wildfires have burnt more than 11.5 million hectares – an area roughly four times the size of Belgium - this year.

And the worst could be yet to come.

Scientists are warning that such extreme wildfires are only becoming more likely and are expected to cause greater damage as global temperatures rise.

The impact on the lives and livelihoods of the people affected is devastating and, beyond that, the infernos are wreaking havoc on the environment, tourism, agriculture and the economy. These effects are often felt far beyond the country where the fires rage.

“We’re seeing rapidly escalating fire activity – in Hawaii, Siberia, Canada, western USA,” said Prof Greg Garrard, who researches the cultural aspects of wildfires at the University of British Columbia in western Canada.

“In eastern Canada, the scale of this change in the fire regime is truly astonishing.”

The McDougall Creek wildfire burns above a lakefront home in West Kelowna, British Columbia, western Canada. AP

The McDougall Creek wildfire burns above a lakefront home in West Kelowna, British Columbia, western Canada. AP

Prof Garrard had first-hand experience in August, when the McDougall Creek wildfire neared the British Columbia city of West Kelowna, which is adjacent to his hometown of Kelowna.

“The city came within a whisker of being wiped off the map,” he said.

That terrible fate befell the seaside community of Lahaina, on the island of Maui, in Hawaii. Around four-fifths of the town was destroyed as fire swept through in the first half of August. The death toll stood at around 115 people at the end of August, though many others were still unaccounted for.

Other places badly hit by fires this year include Tunisia, Algeria, the Spanish island of Tenerife, the Greek mainland and islands of Rhodes, Corfu and Crete and the Italian island of Sicily. In Greece, 19 suspected migrants were among those killed by the flames.

Many landscapes, such as the African savannah, are adapted to cope with fires. Flames sweep through periodically and encourage regeneration of the landscape.

But intense heatwaves and an increase in the amount of flammable material on the forest floor is leading to a rise in the number of extreme and widespread wildfires.

As human populations grow and spread, more people are living in the wildland-urban interface – the border between human habitation and natural landscapes – and so are harder hit when fires happen.

Fire damage along the coast of Lahaina, on the island of Maui, Hawaii. Reuters

Fire damage along the coast of Lahaina, on the island of Maui, Hawaii. Reuters

The frequency of fires has also increased over the past few decades. Since 1979, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development intergovernmental group reports, the number of fire weather days – when conditions are suitable for fires to develop – has risen by more than a quarter.

“The extent of the fires was completely off the record,” said Stefan Doerr, professor of wildland fire science at Swansea University in Wales, regarding the Canadian wildfires.

“These types of very, very large events are becoming more likely with the globally warmer temperatures.”

He said the human death toll was also much greater than in years past, when on average around 60 people would die in major wildfires globally.

“Since 2020, that number has nearly doubled,” said Prof Doerr.

“It’s quite shocking. It doesn’t include the fires in Hawaii. We’re seeing a greater death toll despite the fact we’re better at preventing, better at fighting fires.”

Livelihoods lost

In 2012, Hakim Rouissi had had enough. He gave up his promising desk job and turned to agriculture, seeking to live the traditional farming life of his forebears.

For more than a decade, he nurtured his farm in Maloula village – near the border town of Tabarka, in north-west Tunisia – working the land and steadily increasing production.

But in July, wildfire broke out across the border in Algeria and strong winds swept the blaze into Tunisia. Mr Rouissi's dream went up in flames.

“I lost 70 olive trees, 350 chickens and 94 beehives. The fire came in so quickly and I could only think about saving my own family and my elderly mother, who I had to carry to safety,” Mr Rouissi told The National.

“It still hurts me to look at the pictures of my dead chickens and burnt down barn.”

The aftermath of wildfire that passed through Hakim Rouissi's farm at Maloula village, near Tabarka, north-west Tunisia. Photo: Hakim Rouissi

The aftermath of wildfire that passed through Hakim Rouissi's farm at Maloula village, near Tabarka, north-west Tunisia. Photo: Hakim Rouissi

Agriculture is a key pillar of Tunisia’s economy, employing about 17 per cent of the workforce and accounting for 9.14 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product, according to a 2021 World Bank report.

But agriculture also holds cultural value, connecting present generations to their ancestors and guaranteeing food security for Tunisians.

Government officials visited Mr Rouissi's farm to evaluate the damage and estimated he sustained about 130,000 Tunisian dinars ($42,000) in loss of property and produce. The loss is difficult for the 35-year-old to take in, especially as he has no means to recover or pay tuition fees for his two middle school children as term begins.

A fire engine passes near the town of Melloula, in north-west Tunisia, as a wildfire rages. AFP

A fire engine passes near the town of Melloula, in north-west Tunisia, as a wildfire rages. AFP

Tunisian president Kais Saied and authorities have promised compensation to farmers whose agricultural projects were ravaged by the wildfires, but the process has been slow.

“My farm is the only source of living for my family … We’ve been waiting for all the administrative procedures to finish but it’s taking too long and no one is communicating with us to reassure us,” said Mr Rouissi, who is also president of the Farmers' and Fishermen's Union in Tabarka.

He said many more farmers suffered devastating losses, including 700 beehives.

The blackened remains of trees after wildfire passed through woodland near Melloula. AFP

The blackened remains of trees after wildfire passed through woodland near Melloula. AFP

“These fires have been taking place for years, even our grandparents told us stories about it, and we are well aware that is not going to stop any time soon,” Mr Rouissi said.

“But the difference between previous years and now is the lack of work done by forest authorities and rangers, who no longer clear forest growth near residential areas.”

Woodland covers 1.3 million hectares in Tunisia, with 70 per cent of this in north-western and central-western areas.

But fire, climate change and deforestation have reduced the country's tree cover by about 6 per cent since 2000.

In Tunisia, the peak fire season typically begins in late June, and lasts about 13 weeks. In recent years, fires have become more common, raising serious concerns. Both forestry and agricultural land has been losing value as a result.

A Tabarka resident attempts to halt the flames sweeping towards the town. AFP

A Tabarka resident attempts to halt the flames sweeping towards the town. AFP

Wildfires have also brought ecological devastation and severe agricultural damage to large areas of Europe this summer.

Greece has been particularly hard hit, with around 81,000 hectares – an area larger than New York City – engulfed in flames, according to the EU’s Copernicus Emergency Management Service. One inferno, in north-eastern Greece, is the largest single fire reported in an EU country since the bloc began records in 2000.

Greenhouses full of vegetables and fields lined with fruit trees and crops were destroyed.

Meanwhile, many thousands of livestock perished in the flames.

A wall of flames near Gennadi village, on the Greek island of Rhodes, in July. AP

A wall of flames near Gennadi village, on the Greek island of Rhodes, in July. AP

Kerryn Little, a post-doctoral researcher at the University of Birmingham, in central England, who studies the impact of fires on ecosystems, said the summer of 2023 has brought “a really harsh awakening in terms of wildfires”.

“We had the fires in Rhodes and near Athens in Greece. It’s a next level thing to see,” she told The National.

She suggested many of the fires are likely to have caused serious alterations to soil qualities.

“It can change the pH of the soil, but this depends on the intensity of the fire and the soil itself,” Ms Little said. “If it really burns into the ground, if it’s smouldering for quite a long time, it can do a lot of damage.

“In the case of a peatland area it could release a lot of carbon. I work in peatland environments, and I know that they can store pollutants like heavy metals in their soils.

“These can be released following a fire. You are exposing that soil to the surface where it might erode or enter waterways.”

A firefighter clutches two rabbits and a cat, rescued from a wildfire between Kiotari and Gennadi on Rhodes. AFP

A firefighter clutches two rabbits and a cat, rescued from a wildfire between Kiotari and Gennadi on Rhodes. AFP

Ms Little said a combination of conditions in many parts of Europe this year set a deadly scene for infernos.

“It’s the aligning of a few different factors that can really lead to damaging consequences,” she said. “It’s not just high temperatures or dry conditions, it's also related to location within a community and wind speeds.

“But certainly, the heatwave of Europe this year has been significant.”

Farms that managed to avoid the fires are still not off the hook, even if crops survived. Smoke from wildfires can rise many kilometres into the stratosphere and pollute the air in areas far from the affected sites. Crops that absorb the smoke can be left unusable.

Wine producers are particularly vulnerable, as it is impossible to tell whether grapes have been tainted until they are made into wine.

Wildfires that broke out across California in 2020 are estimated to have cost the wine industry there $3.7 billion. These losses are still being felt by wineries in 2023.

A firefighting aircraft drops flame retardants, near Trapani, western Sicily. The island is Italy's biggest wine region. Reuters

A firefighting aircraft drops flame retardants, near Trapani, western Sicily. The island is Italy's biggest wine region. Reuters

In Sicily, Liliana Rosano, spokeswoman for Assovini Sicilia, which represents wine producers on the southern Italian island, told The National that the group’s businesses were not directly affected by this summer’s fires that killed three people and temporarily closed Palermo Airport.

But she said the 100 businesses, “from big names to medium and small producers”, have been left exposed to potential smoke damage.

“Of course, there’s a concern [about the smoke] but the wildfires did not come close to our producers,” she said. “Their territory is very well maintained, and even the land around them is looked after,” said Ms Rosano.

“The fires usually happen on land that is not looked after by the [local authority]. It is full of wild bushes and it gets very dry.

“But I saw that the fires came pretty close to some other vineyards.

“Every year, we have the same problem.”

Tourism takes a hit

The summer of 2023 will be remembered as the season large areas of Europe's tourism areas burnt, as wildfires raged across swathes of western Europe and the Mediterranean.

These were worst in areas that endured record-breaking heatwaves named after ominous-sounding Greek mythological figures and creatures, such as Cerberus, the multi-headed dog that guards the gates of the Underworld.

Wildfires are common in Greece during the summer months but the intensity of the blazes has increased as late due to climate change, most scientists believe.

A firefighting helicopter flies over Gennadi village on the Greek island of Rhodes. AP

A firefighting helicopter flies over Gennadi village on the Greek island of Rhodes. AP

On the popular tourist islands of Corfu and Rhodes, firefighters battled ferocious wildfires in July. This led to the evacuation of 19,000 people, including thousands of tourists, and caused some operators to stop flights.

Destruction in Greece continued into August. In the north-east, near the border with Turkey, the bodies of 19 suspected migrants – including two children – were found among what had been lush woodland before consumed by wildfire. Blazes also raged near Athens, laying waste to homes and forest.

In Italy, tourism was also affected by the fires. In Sicily, which attracted almost five million visitors in 2022, wildfires forced evacuations and led to the temporary closure of Palermo Airport in July.

Palermo Airport in Sicily was closed to flights as wildfires raged by the perimeter. EPA

Palermo Airport in Sicily was closed to flights as wildfires raged by the perimeter. EPA

“Wildfires lead a trail of destruction, coming from the devastation of cultural and natural assets, loss of life and also severe travel disruption to flights and transport,” Caroline Bremner, senior head of travel research at Euromonitor, told The National.

The economic impact of Southern Europe's fires was made worse as they coincided with the peak tourist season.

Tourism contributes to up to 20 per cent of Greece’s GDP and 12.4 per cent of Spain’s, according to Statista.

Experts say the lost revenue across Europe is incalculable, but may be felt in years to come as large swathes of land popular for hiking and camping have been destroyed.

In Hawaii, where the town of Lahaina was burned to the ground, West Maui region is believed to be losing about $9 million a day due to the impact on tourism.

Around three million tourists visit the island of Maui each year, spending about $5.4 billion dollars, according to Hawaii's Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. Before the wildfires, about 8,000 people arrived on Maui each day but this has since dropped to around 2,000.

The aftermath of the Lahaina fire, on Maui. Three million tourists usually visit the Hawaiian island each year. AP Photo

The aftermath of the Lahaina fire, on Maui. Three million tourists usually visit the Hawaiian island each year. AP Photo

The impact of the fires on tourism was immediate – but how enduring will it be? Experts say that all depends.

“There were some last-minute booking changes in Europe due to the fires, but it's not quite as much as one might imagine,” said Doug Lansky, a tourism expert and travel writer based in Sweden.

“There was an increase in bookings from Northern Europe to Scandinavia and the Alps ... trips that would have, presumably, otherwise been to Greece or Italy or Spain before the heatwave.”

There was no notable increase from Southern Europe to those areas. That is likely because people who are used to warm summers are not put off by a few extra degrees for a short period, said Mr Lansky.

And the majority of bookings – around 70 per cent – are made well in advance, with only around 30 per cent made within a few weeks of the trip.

Tourists evacuated in Rhodes wait at Diagoras International Airport to leave the Greek island. Reuters

Tourists evacuated in Rhodes wait at Diagoras International Airport to leave the Greek island. Reuters

“We won't know if this a trend until next year when the advance bookings change. But those are made in January to March, when it's quite cold and rainy in northern Europe. Those people might be dreaming about a warm beach and, at the time of decision making, conclude that this summer was an anomaly,” said Mr Lansky.

“We'll need to wait and see. It could take a few summers in a row of heatwaves and fires before we see such changes.”

Negative effects from disasters tend to fade quickly, he said.

And Greece handled the situation well, offering a free return trip to all those who had their holidays disrupted, added Mr Lansky.

“That's smart service recovery,” he said.

“I believe they will recover just fine and quite quickly, unless global warming and fires becomes a major issue year after year.

“Then it will likely become a timeframe that travellers avoid – much like avoiding India during monsoon season or the Caribbean during hurricane season.”

Tourists on a ferry to Corfu in July, as smoke billows from fires on the Greek island. AFP

Tourists on a ferry to Corfu in July, as smoke billows from fires on the Greek island. AFP

Despite the recent extreme weather, demand for travel since the Covid-19 pandemic remains high, say experts.

Some people will continue to travel, regardless of whether an area suffers severe annual wildfires, Ms Bremner said.

“Consumers are more resilient, having lived through the pandemic and the chaos once travel resumed,” she said.

“There will be a large segment of the travelling public that will continue to travel, even if there are wildfires provided that the risk is manageable and that there is no immediate danger in their chosen resort.”

Countries at risk of wildfires, such as Greece, have already begun to prepare for the future, installing a climate crisis minister. Such moves will be essential in the “new normal”, described as an “era of boiling” by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, said Ms Bremner.

“In the meantime, tourism boards, communities and travel brands can put out positive messages that not all destinations in a country are affected, that it is still safe to travel.

“And that not travelling is even more harmful to local communities,” she said.

Economic impact

Not only do wildfires destroy lives and properties, but they also devastate industries and local economies. They directly affect tourism and agriculture but also impact health in productivity – even in places far from the original fire.

“In the intermediate run after a fire, there can be negative impacts on water quality due to erosion of unprotected soil, which can increase the costs of water treatment,” Prof Jonathan Yoder from Washington State University told The National.

According to estimates, the Hawaiian island of Maui suffered damage of up to $16 billion. Reuters

According to estimates, the Hawaiian island of Maui suffered damage of up to $16 billion. Reuters

“There’s also continued disruption of normal productivity, because of displacement of people, who have lost their property until rebuilding and resettlement.”

Global weather forecasting company Accuweather recently increased its estimates of the damage wrought by the wildfires on Maui from $8-10 billion to $14-16 billion.

That would equate to 15 per cent of Hawaii’s annual economic output – more than the entire GDP of Maui.

“This is an extraordinary disaster,” said AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter.

“This will have a dramatic effect on not only residents, their homes and their businesses, but also a dramatic negative impact on tourism, with a long tail of negative impacts on the economy, culture, health, and residence which will last for years.”

A man runs for cover near Gennadi village, on the Greek island of Rhodes. AFP

A man runs for cover near Gennadi village, on the Greek island of Rhodes. AFP

Sarah Meier and Robert Elliott from the University of Birmingham in the UK and Eric Strobl from the University of Bern in Switzerland studied the economic effects of various wildfires in Southern Europe between 2011 to 2018.

“We found an annual decrease in the rate of gross domestic product growth of 0.11 to 0.18 per cent for wildfire affected regions," Ms Meier told The National.

“Given that 102 regions are affected by wildfires every year on average, our findings indicate rough annual economic losses for Southern Europe in the range of €13 billion ($14 billion) to €21 billion.”

Holiday company, TUI, said it urgently flew out 8,000 customers from the Greek island of Rhodes, following the wildfire outbreak in July.

TUI said the blazes cost the company €25 million, which included the price of cancelling holidays, compensating customers and flying them home.

Prof Yoder said the rate of return of tourists to a wildfire-damaged area like Maui can vary.

“How Lahaina’s tourism will be affected in the long-term is unclear and may be negatively affected if ... the specific tourist centre was dependent on its historical draw, which I think was significant,” he said.

“I would expect that the tourism industry of Maui, and the Hawaiian Islands more generally, will not see a long-lasting impact from the fire.”

The hall of the historic Waiola Church and the nearby Lahaina Hongwanji Mission engulfed in flames. AP

The hall of the historic Waiola Church and the nearby Lahaina Hongwanji Mission engulfed in flames. AP

However, Jude Bayham, assistant professor of agricultural and resource economics at Colorado State University, said it could take some time for visitors to return to wildfire-affected countries.

“I suspect that tourism won't return until much of the [Maui] area is rebuilt, and the aesthetic is restored,” he said.

“In the case of camping in the US, we found effects lasting up to six years.

“We suspect that people begin to revisit natural areas to camp or recreate when green vegetation begins to regrow.”

The economic effects of wildfires can be felt far beyond the flames, at both national and international level.

In June, smoke from fires in Canada threatened air quality from the US Midwest to New York City. Poor air quality can affect people’s health and, therefore, economic productivity.

Acrid smoke from the McDougall Creek wildfire in British Columbia crossed the border from Canada to also affect US air quality. AFP

Acrid smoke from the McDougall Creek wildfire in British Columbia crossed the border from Canada to also affect US air quality. AFP

Research by four universities in the US, UK and China found that California’s wildfires in 2018 cost the US economy $148.5 billion, which amounted to 0.7 per cent of the country’s GDP.

Nearly a third of this economic cost – some $45.9 billion – was incurred outside California.

“While the deadliest wildfires destroyed many houses and other physical infrastructure, the air pollution triggered caused a great burden to people’s health,” said Prof Dabo Guan from University College London, one of the report co-authors.

“Productivities were therefore reduced, due to sickness in California. The slowdown in production caused ripple effects to economic supply chains within California as well as the other 49 states and internationally”.

After studying the economic effects of drifting smoke in cities far away from wildfires, the US National Bureau of Economic Research private research organisation claimed that every day of extra smoke from wildfires reduces quarterly earnings by 0.1 per cent.

Reduced earnings can lead to lower consumer spending which, in turn, can translate into slower economic growth.

Environmental damage

Extreme wildfires have severe and wide-ranging impacts on the environment.

Soil, air, water, wildlife and vegetation can all be polluted or destroyed as a result of fire sweeping through.

Susan Prichard, a research scientist at the University of Washington in Seattle who studies wildfires, has experienced a worsening of air quality herself.

Smoke billows from the McDougall Creek wildfire at West Kelowna, British Columbia. AFP

Smoke billows from the McDougall Creek wildfire at West Kelowna, British Columbia. AFP

“We live in a mountain town in eastern Washington State. It seems very different since around 2000. Most of our summers have been filled with smoke,” she said.

“The air quality is between very unhealthy and hazardous.”

Exposure to smoke from wildfires has been associated with cardiovascular problems and respiratory diseases. A recent OECD report said air pollution from wildfire smoke causes around 340,000 premature deaths each year.

There are additional effects on people, according to Prof Doerr at Swansea University.

“The mental health burden in wildfire affected regions can also be substantial, including increases in anxiety, depression and sleep deprivation,” he said.

Ms Prichard highlighted the impact on ecosystems. Savannah areas are adapted to wildfires and relatively little carbon is released by burning. Carbon that is released is soon reabsorbed as vegetation recovers.

Firefighters arrive to battle a wildfire in Reguengo, Portalegre district, eastern Portugal. AFP

Firefighters arrive to battle a wildfire in Reguengo, Portalegre district, eastern Portugal. AFP

But Ms Prichard said that, with climate-driven wildfires, landscapes that have previously acted as stores of carbon – such as forests and peatlands – are now releasing more carbon than they sequester.

Extreme wildfires are calculated to release about eight billion tonnes of carbon dioxide each year, intensifying global warming.

Alongside climate change, a key reason why wildfires in some parts of the world, such as North America, are becoming more severe is because there is more fuel to burn.

Historically, people burned a lot to clear areas to make camp, said Prof Garrard from the University of British Columbia. Now, with such small-scale burning not taking place, flammable material has accumulated.

“We now think there may be five to 10 times as much fuel over the western North American landscape than in precolonial times,” Prof Garrard said.

Extreme wildfires can cause lasting environmental harm to the ecosystems they burn through, hindering the germination of seeds not adapted to coping with fire. Plants more resistant to flames – possibly invasive species – may instead flourish and displace native vegetation.

“In some cases, these extreme wildfires can lead to the permanent loss of vegetation. This is particularly true when these wildfires occur in areas that are not adapted to wildfires or where wildfires have been rare until now,” said Carmen Sanchez-Garcia, a wildfire researcher at Swansea University.

Woodland ablaze at Matas de Espite, in central Portugal. EPA

Woodland ablaze at Matas de Espite, in central Portugal. EPA

Without vegetation, the soil is exposed to the effects of rain and wind, often causing enhanced erosion after wildfires, Ms Sanchez-Garcia said. In turn, this can affect soil nutrient levels and prevent seeds from germinating, and lead to mudslides.

Extreme wildfires can also have significant impact on water quality because of the layer of ash left behind, which can be transported along with other material into rivers, lakes and reservoirs by rainfall.

“This can have a large impact on water quality and on contamination of water systems,” she said. “Sometimes these forested areas provide drinking water to large cities.”

Wildlife is also at risk. In 2019 and 2020, wildfires in Australia – which are said to have been made 30 per cent more likely because of climate change – killed or displaced an estimated three billion animals and many habitats were destroyed.

A rescuer carries a tranquilised kangaroo that was injured in 2020 wildfires at Peak View, New South Wales, east Australia. Getty

A rescuer carries a tranquilised kangaroo that was injured in 2020 wildfires at Peak View, New South Wales, east Australia. Getty

“This is particularly concerning when it’s habitats of already endangered species, as it can contribute to the loss of biodiversity that we’re already seeing,” Ms Sanchez-Garcia said.

Measures such as prescribed burning can be used to ensure that when wildfires happen, they are less severe and do not release such large quantities of carbon.

“There’s a lot we can do like prevention, managing the fuels … but if greenhouse gas emissions keep rising, there’s agreement we are going to continue experiencing these extreme events in many regions,” said Ms Sanchez-Garcia.